The Sky Sports camera slowly pans across Lyle Taylor’s face, his pink hair tips, recently touched up for #Lyle’sPinkOctober, glisten above a stoic appearance.
With a smirk, he finally speaks. “If you keep defying the odds is it us? Or is it the odds?”
Flashback to May 26th and those tips, this time blonde, were hoisting a shiny new piece of silverware high into the sky, 94 minutes of odds-defying football culminating in Patrick Bauer’s goal and Sunderland’s vanquishing.
Defying The Odds?
But if you keep defying the odds? Is it Charlton? Or is it the odds? Lyle’s terrific tag-line, filmed as part of a mini-doc on Lee Bowyer’s reign, doesn’t fully make sense, but the sentiment is relatively clear. Charlton love to be counted out, they love to be slighted, and they absolutely love to be assumed dead when they have an extra breath remaining.
This season has been no different. Less than one week before Taylor’s eloquent cameo aired on Sky, Josh Cullen notched a last-gasp penalty to salvage a point at the Hawthorns, West Brom becoming the latest expensively assembled side unable to down the Addicks. Bowyer’s team have continued to show that for them, spending power and league position are just talking points for pundits rather than crucial elements of individual football matches.
Seven games played against the Championship’s top five clubs and still no defeats. Wednesday’s 0–0 draw with Fulham made it 11 points on the season against West Brom, Leeds, Nottingham Forest, Brentford, and the Cottagers.
So, let me ask you again; If you keep defying the odds, is it Charlton or is it the odds?
Beating Bottom Clubs
Unfortunately for this plucky group of players, that Lyle-ism™ is no longer relevant. The time for defying the odds is finished. Instead, heading into a mammoth February, Charlton need to just nicely adhere to the mythical odds. But that’s when things get substantially murkier for this club.
While Charlton have acted as that horrible little seed stuck in the teeth of promotion-chasing sides, simply unwilling to pack it in and accept defeat, the Addicks have been far more forgiving against the league’s basement dwellers.
Bowyer’s team have picked up just four points against the bottom seven sides, 0.57 points per game, compared to the 14 won against the top eight at a rate of 1.16 points per game.
Put simply, Charlton are at their best when facing the sides they shouldn’t beat, and rather disappointing when tasked with the seemingly winnable games.
Season-Defining Run
The concern now is that Charlton face a season-defining set of games against their relegation rivals, three of the teams that have helped hold them to that absolutely horrendous 0.57 points per game. First on the agenda is 22nd place Barnsley on the 1st of February, followed by Stoke, sitting in 20th, on the 8th of the month, before a date with bottom of the table Luton on the 22nd.
The reverse fixture for Barnsley saw Charlton snatch a late point through Lyle Taylor’s penalty after Conor Gallagher was tripped in the box. They faced Stoke a week earlier at The Valley in the second game of the season and won 3–1 in a thoroughly convincing display. Both results breed promise, but August’s remarkable form feels a long way away. Much fresher on the mind is the 2–1 defeat to Luton in which Bowyer’s side had 53% possession, but created just one shot on target after Jonathan Leko’s early goal. In many ways that defeat proved to be a microcosm for a large portion of the Addicks’ failures this season. But more on that to come.
In order to surmise the reasons for Charlton’s strange inconsistencies, we must look at what they’ve done well. Charlton’s habit of springing a shock or two or seven can be attributed in no small part to the attitude and spirit fostered in the squad. A central tenet of Bowyer’s time at the club, the Addicks have a well-established never-say-die attitude. Spirit is a tough quality to quantify, but Bowyer has repeatedly commended his side for this particular trait.
Showing Heart
Speaking after that special day in the Wembley sunshine, Bowyer told the official site “A lot of those young lads have had to become men, to come from behind against a good Sunderland side.
“They had to pull together but they’ve been doing it all season. They are a special group, they are heroes to many people now.”
Following August’s 1–0 victory against Brentford, a match that saw the visitors mount 21 scoreless shots, Bowyer again beamed with pride at his side’s heart.
“The most pleasing thing for me is the way the team battled, fought and put their bodies on the line. That is the most pleasing thing and they got a reward for it today.”
Perhaps the greatest sign of the unwavering team spirit in Bowyer’s camp has been the perpetually growing catalogue of late goals. Grabbing points at the death became a common thread of last season’s promotion campaign, the Addicks scoring 12 times in the last 15 minutes of matches as well as that giant extra one at Wembley. This season has been no different, Charlton finding the net 10 times in the last quarter-hour of matches, more than in any other period.
Grinding Out Results
While a strong collective attitude has helped Charlton remain fiercely competitive against the league’s best sides, the Addicks style of play helps paint a clear image. In fact, a deeper look starts to illuminate the reasoning behind their bizarre and backwards pattern of being superb against the best teams and mediocre against well, mediocre teams.
Charlton have managed seven wins this season. On each occasion, they held less than 50% possession, in total averaging 39% of the ball, including a season-low of 28% in the 1–0 victory against Leeds.
That win against Leeds is a great example of the type of resilient attritional effort this Charlton team is capable of. Marcelo Bielsa’s side certainly dominated the encounter but managed just four shots on target as Macauley Bonne’s scrappy 32nd-minute goal proved enough to claim all three points.
In reality, despite many of the statistics weighing heavily in Leeds’ favour, Charlton thoroughly deserved the points after an excellent performance that combined the spiritual aspects of grit and determination with crucial footballing skills of clinical finishing and swift counter-attacking play.
January’s 2–2 draw with West Brom was another example of Charlton’s possession-less style coming to fruition. The Baggies, ending the weekend top of the table, had 62% possession, creating 19 total shots. West Brom twice took the lead but the Addicks’ were more than worthy of their 76th-minute equaliser and could even have snatched a win late on when Jonny Williams went close to connecting with a header at the back-post.
Poor In Possession
Looking at the rest of Charlton’s matches this season and a trend begins to cement itself. In the Addicks’ nine draws they have averaged 43.5% possession and had less than 50% of the ball on 6/9 occasions, while in their 13 defeats they have had the majority of possession 9/13 times while their overall average sits at 50.6%.
There have been lots of Leedses and West Broms, games where Charlton were at their best while having limited possession. But there have also been many Lutons, games in which Charlton were sub-par despite having a majority share of the ball.
No pair of matches sum this up better than the two meetings with Derby County. The 3–0 home victory in October, potentially the Addicks most dominant and swashbuckling football of the season, saw Charlton record just 38% possession and out-shoot the Rams 10 to four. In the reverse fixture, the 2–1 defeat at Pride Park, Charlton held 61% of the ball but created less shots on target than Derby, five to the hosts’ seven. The Addicks’ inability to turn possession into goals was punctuated by Krystian Bielek’s early sending off, the extra man still not enough to help Charlton create much in the way of clear-cut chances.
A particularly exasperated Bowyer spoke of his team’s lack of cutting edge after the December 31st defeat.
“They had Krystian sent off early and in my eyes we should go on and win the game. We didn’t for a number of reasons.
“In possession we were poor. We didn’t create anything at all. Second half until the penalty we didn’t really have a shot. Our final ball was poor all night long. Derby deserved to win.”
The statistics certainly don’t lie; Charlton have been at their best this season when playing without the ball. They have the fifth-most goals in the Championship directly from counter-attacks (3) while also maintaining the best record in the league from corners, scoring at a conversion rate of 7.08%. Set-pieces and counter-attacking has been the bedrock for many of the club’s best results this season, both viable tactics when the ball is primarily held by the opposition. All three goals against Leeds and West Brom came from set-pieces while the winner against Brentford came from winning the ball high up the pitch and countering at pace.
Craving Creativity
Charlton also have two of the Championship’s most clinical strikers, Taylor ranking second with a conversion rate of 26.9% while Bonne sits just behind his teammate in third with a rate of 26.7%, helping greatly in matches where the Addicks are on the back-foot and need to make the most of the few chances they create.
This expert clinicism, however, is also a sign of Charlton’s creative deficiencies. Despite averaging 47.1% possession so far this season, better than the likes of Hull, Middlesborough, and Cardiff, and scoring 37 goals, 13th best in the Championship, Charlton sit dead-last for shots per game (8.9) and key passes per game (6.9).
One reason for Charlton’s ineffectiveness when faced with the majority of the ball is their lack of danger from long-range. Of all 24 teams in the Championship, the Addicks have recorded the highest proportion of shots from inside the six-yard box (12%), second-highest from inside the penalty area (58%) and the lowest from outside the 18-yard box (31%). The lack of threat from distance enables opposition defences to sit back and consolidate their numbers in the box as they know that the risk of a successful long-range effort is relatively low. Charlton are then forced to try and break down opposition teams in a much smaller area of the pitch, less space making the task that much more difficult.
Missing Quartet
Another reason for Charlton’s bluntness in possession is that they have had very little time to match their most dangerous weapons and best game-breakers on the pitch at once. Josh Cullen (1.4) and Alfie Doughty (1.3) lead the team in key passes per game, Doughty (1.7) and Jonny Williams (1.3) lead the side in successful dribbles per match, and Lyle Taylor unsurprisingly tops the shot charts with 1.9 per game. These four players, likely all members of Bowyer’s strongest starting XI, have played a grand total of 20 minutes together this season, all coming in Wednesday’s draw with Fulham.
Numerous times in the past few months Doughty has been the only member of this quartet available, allowing opposition teams to lock in on him as the dangerman, devoting extra resources to stop him and nullify Charlton’s main attacking source. Doughty’s second start, the 1–0 away defeat to Middlesborough displayed this and the greater challenges Charlton have faced this season. The hosts’ first-minute goal proved enough as the Addicks went on to record 56% possession, but create just five total shots. Doughty was also kept relatively quiet on a day where he had 0 successful dribbles and 0 shots.
The following week was more of the same with the late 1–0 defeat to Huddersfield again showcasing the struggles of relying too heavily on one point of attack. The youngster managed just 43 touches of the ball, 17th-most out of the 22 starting players, even less than Dillon Phillips, while also attributing five unsuccessful touches, more than any other player.
In truth, Doughty did himself proud in both of these difficult matches recording two key passes in the defeat to Middlesborough and three successful dribbles in the loss to the Terriers, while also looking the likeliest threat throughout. However, as the main, and at times, only, point of attack, both opposition defences found it much too easy to shut him down and in effect shut down Charlton’s entire attack.
Regardless of the personnel on show, Charlton have had major struggles attacking from multiple points, thereby making it too easy for opposition defences. They rank last in the Championship for attacks down the right-side. Heavily ignoring this area of the pitch allows their foes to focus excessive energy and resources on the left-side and centre of the pitch. Charlton’s preference for the left-side also highlights their over-reliance on Doughty.
Relegation Race
Sitting six points clear of the relegation zone, Charlton have a chance to pull away from danger. A strong February and the fears of a return to League One could become a distant mirage in the rear-view mirror. That being said, things could also get very tight, very quickly. Facing three teams fighting for their lives in the mire of the relegation battle, the Addicks will likely have far greater spells of possession than in recent weeks against Fulham, Preston, and West Brom.
However, they will also come up against desperate and thoroughly packed defences. Bowyer and his coaching staff need to figure out ways to break down stubborn sides or February could become a grim month rather fast.
Fortunately for the Charlton manager, he has a full week to prepare for Barnsley’s visit as well as a much larger squad at his disposal. The team that finished the draw with Fulham included all of Cullen, Williams, Doughty, Taylor, and Andre Green, while Erhun Oztumer also started the match. While injuries haven’t been the only reason for Charlton’s struggles in possession this season, having many and varied points of attack should certainly help.
Traditionally at their best when playing the role of underdog, it’s time for Charlton to shed that identifier and start taking care of the teams below them. February 1st would be a pretty good time to start.
