Millwall welcomed 2,000 fans back to The Den on Saturday for the first time in what felt like forever for many of those lucky few.
It was 279 days since the last time a Lions fan went through a turnstiles on Zampa Road (after a 1-1 draw against Bristol City back in February), but how much of an affect did and will that have on Millwall’s home form?
Gary Rowett’s men have played 12 home fixtures in the Championship since the return of football without fans back in late June. Coincidentally, the first team Millwall faced in a match behind closed doors were the same opponents they faced on Saturday, for the first match with fans allowed back in.
Derby County were triumphant on that day six months ago as 18-year-old Louie Sibley announced himself on the Sky Bet Championship stage with a hat trick in a 3-2 defeat for the Lions. But how does their record in their 12 previous home matches pre-lockdown compare to their home record when playing in front of no fans?
Rowett’s Revolution Pre-Lockdown
If we were to rewind time those 12 home matches before lockdown, we’d find ourselves on the 26th October 2019, ready for the visit of Stoke City in what was Gary Rowett’s first game in charge as Millwall manager, as well as a bottom-end of the table clash.
The Lions were down in 17th place, with just three wins and 15 points from their opening 13 league games. Stoke were down in 23rd place, only ahead of Barnsley on goal difference, with nine defeats from their first 13 games. A man-of-the-match performance from Jed Wallace, who got a goal and an assist, led Rowett’s Lions to a 2-0 win.
The Stoke victory sparked an upturn in form for the Lions both home and away, as they went on a run of just one defeat in nine games. Since we’re just counting home matches, starting with and including the Stoke game, Millwall picked up 17 points from Rowett’s first eight home games.
Five of these were wins and there was just one loss, as well as a 2-2 draw against automatic promotion-chasing Nottingham Forest that had a dramatic ending, with Forest taking the lead in the 88th minute before a 92nd minute equaliser courtesy of Aiden O’Brien.
The good run of form since Rowett’s appointment as manager, created on the back of their strong home form, had lifted the Lions from 17th place up to seventh, and just one point off the play-off spots after a 2-0 home win over Reading in mid-January.
Difficult Opponents
Millwall were looking like serious promotion candidates at this point and it seemed that Rowett was the correct man to take the reigns following Neil Harris’ resignation from the club, after spending more than 10 years at Millwall, as both a player and a coach.
The final four home matches before lockdown provided somewhat of a downward turn in form, although they were against much more difficult opponents. The Lions picked up just three points in total from the four matches, though only lost one match in a tough run of fixtures that involved a 2-0 loss to West Brom and a 1-1 draw with Fulham, both of whom ended up getting promoted that season. They also drew with Bristol City, who were also well in with a shout of reaching the top six, until an awful run of form post-lockdown.
Overall, Rowett’s record in his 12 home matches pre-lockdown was five wins, five draws and two losses, scoring 17 and conceding 12 goals along the way, collecting 20 points.
Lions Had Play-Off Credentials
Fast-forward nearly four months and one global pandemic later, and Millwall were firmly in play-off contention with the season finally about to get back underway. They were in eighth position in the league, just two points off sixth, and a lot of followers of the Championship genuinely believed they were in one of the strongest positions to finish in the top six for the first time in 18 years.
This was based on the difficulty (or lack of) of their remaining fixtures as well as their pre-lockdown form that culminated in a 3-0 away win at high flying Nottingham Forest in the final match before lockdown.
It’s fair to say, playing with no fans at The Den took some getting used to for Millwall; the Lions picked up just one point from their opening three home matches after the restart, which included the aforementioned loss to Derby and even a 2-0 defeat to struggling Middlesbrough, who were sitting just one place above the relegation zone at the time.
After the initial struggle of getting to grips with playing at an empty Den, Millwall managed to build up a run of decent home form. Combined over the final two home games of the 2019-20 season and the first three home games of the current season, Millwall went unbeaten across five matches, winning three of them and conceding just two goals along the way.
Some standout results from this period included: a 4-1 win over Huddersfield Town on the final day of last season, a 1-1 draw at home to promotion favourites and last year’s play-off finalists Brentford, and a comfortable 2-0 win over Luton Town who had started the season in very sharp form.
Since that win over Luton however, home form has gone back to being less than ideal. Heading into the Halloween fixture against Huddersfield, the Lions were third in the table and just a point off the automatic promotion places after a 2-0 win away win at Preston North End.
Toothless Lions
The Lions went on to lose the match 3-0 and haven’t won a match since. They’ve picked up just three points from their last four home matches before the return of fans, all of which were draws. All bar one of those four matches have been against teams lower than them in the table. This run of form has seen the Lions drop down to 13th in the table.
Millwall’s overall home record while not having fans in attendance has been 12 games played, three wins, six draws and three losses. They’ve scored 14 and conceded 14, picking up 15 points along the way.
Just to compare, here’s a recap of Rowett’s record in his 12 home matches pre-lockdown: five wins, five draws and two losses, scoring 17 and conceding 12 goals along the way, collecting 20 points.
These figures will be pretty close to what most people would have expected – home teams are better at home when there are fans there to support them. Millwall won more games, lost fewer, scored more, conceded fewer and picked up more points when they had fans cheering them on.
The Lions would have be hoping that this meant the gradual return of fans to the Den would have correlated and provide an upturn in form for Rowett’s side, helping propel them towards the play-off places they’ve twice come close to over the past three seasons.
Fans Return To The Den
It was arguably the best start possible for the return of fans, with the opposition for last Saturday’s match being bottom of the table Derby, who had just one will all season and were without a victory in 11 matches.
However, a 1-0 defeat for the Lions proved to end what was a eventful day for everyone on a rather sour note. Although Tuesday’s performance against Queens Park Rangers was much better, the Lions were still held to a 1-1 draw.
This means, that from a possible six points, Millwall have secured just one in their two home games since the return of fans. It seems then, that just like they had to get used to playing without fans, Millwall will now have to get used to playing with them again.
